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Gold smashes record, prices hit new high as pandemic impacts global economy

Gold Bars

*The metal is soaring to as high as $3,000 an ounce ─Report

Isola Moses | ConsumerConnect

Investors’ safe haven of choice Gold has just smashed a record, and every major bank agrees that it will cross $2,000 an ounce.

However, what happens next is where forecasts diverge? JPMorgan Chase & Co. says the rally that has already seen prices rise 27% in 2020 could start to lose steam later this year, according to CNN report.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corporation aren’t ready to call it quits just yet, with the latter seeing the metal soaring to as high as $3,000 an ounce, stated the report.

Gold has emerged as the safe haven of choice among investors as the pandemic disrupts several economies worldwide.

The spot metal touched $1,981.27 Tuesday, July 28, 2020, about $60 above the previous peak set in 2011, boosted by a drop in real rates, the recent weakness in the Dollar, massive government stimulus and flaring U.S.-China tensions, report said.

Gold is serving as an attractive hedge as yields on Treasuries that strip out the effects of inflation fall below zero.

JPMorgan analysts said in a report Monday, that Gold “will likely see one last hurrah before prices turn lower into year-end.”

The bank is said to have turned neutral on gold, while adding that the current price might be close to a peak.

BofA couldn’t hold a more different view, sticking to its April forecast for $3,000-an-ounce gold over the next 18 months.

Citigroup said the current gold cycle is “unique” and prices can “stay in a higher range for longer.”

Goldman raised its 12-month forecast to $2,300 expecting a “search of a new reserve currency” given a gloomy outlook for the Dollar.

Signs of gold’s record-breaking ascent began to show in mid-2019, when the Federal Reserve signalled a readiness to cut US interest rates as uncertainty — primarily about the impact of the US trade battles ─clouded its outlook.

The rally gathered pace in early 2020 as geopolitical tensions increased and the coronavirus outbreak hurt growth worldwide, with gold heading for its biggest annual gain in a decade.

Acording to report, all the moves have generated the same fears that had taken gold to its previous record in September 2011 ─ that the Dollar will deteriorate and inflation will spark.

But this time around, stimulus measures were quicker and bigger, UBS Group AG said, and it’s still unclear how large the impact on global unemployment and activity could be from the health crisis.

In the meantime, calls for $2,000 gold are mounting, though there’s still a little bit further to go for gold.

Citigroup analysts including Aakash Doshi in a note said raising the bank’s short-term target for the metal to $2,100, as prices should breach $2,000 soon.

According to Citigroup, “prices seem biased to stay higher for longer, with 2019-20 emerging into a unique bull regime for the yellow metal.”

Prices could even reach $2,300 in six to 12 months under a bullish scenario, said the bank.

For UBS, gold around $2,000 may be the “new normal” with the current set of drivers, and prices could climb to $2,300 in its “risk” scenario, said Wayne Gordon, executive director for commodities and foreign exchange at UBS’s wealth management unit.

But the rally could fade by the middle of next year, with prices coming under pressure as central banks can’t keep the same pace of easing, he said.

Investors will start looking at alternatives as economies recover, added the report.

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