IMPI revises Nigeria’s projected inflation rate from 17 to 14 percent for December 2025

*The Independent Media and Policy Initiative projects Nigeria’s headline inflation will drop further to 14 percent before the end of 2025, following a recent decline to 18.02 percent

Alexander Davis | ConsumerConnect

‎The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has projected that Nigeria’s headline inflation will drop further from projected 17 percent to 14 percent before the end of 2025, due to a recent decline to 18.02 percent.

IMPI, in its September Policy Statement 029, stated that the country’s inflation rate would trend down to 17 percent from the 20.12 percent recorded August this year.

It turned out that Inflation data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) was near the 17 percent projected by IMPI.

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Dr. Omoniyi Akinsiju, Chairman of IMPI, in the policy statement, noted that the drop in inflation in the last six months would have had some impact on the current poverty data.

‎The think-tank also said: “In many particular ways, inflation plays a significant role in the World Bank’s template of increased estimates of poverty in a jurisdiction.

“In a period of persistent increase in prices, the correlation is that more people within that jurisdiction are expected to slide or fall into poverty because of the erosion of purchasing power and the inability of an increasing percentage of the people to afford basic economic sustenance items, especially food and energy.”

Akinsiju stated: ‎”Thus, the high inflation environment that prevailed in Nigeria, peaking at 34.8 percent in December 2024, was a major input to the estimated 139 million Nigerians falling into poverty by the World Bank.

‎”Things have, however, changed over the last six months.

“From the high inflationary environment, the economy has transmuted to a vastly improved one.”

IMPI further averred: “Now, we can safely assert that more Nigerians have been cycled out of poverty, which is consequent to the ongoing disinflation in the economic space.

‎”With a new set of data available to us, we can further improve on our Consumer Price Index (CPI) projection to submit that the inflation rate will decline to 14 percent by December 2025.”

The policy statement explained: “This is a shift from the 17 percent we projected in our last Policy Statement.

“We continue to observe a strong determination by the federal administration to ensure a low-cost economic environment, even as it grapples with Labour disputes on multiple fronts.”

Expectation from CBN’s Monetary Policy Committee

‎‎The think-tank as well stated expects the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to reduce the benchmark interest rate by at least 150 basis points during its next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

‎It said: ‎”Also associated with that projection was the possible reduction of the all-important Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), which, in our last Policy Statement, we projected to be reduced by a total of 200 basis points to 25.50 percent.

“We still expect that the Monetary Policy authorities, the Central Bank of Nigeria, will, at its next meeting, have compelling reasons to, at the least, reduce the MPR by another 150 basis points.”

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