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2023: Osinbajo is ‘most preferred’ in presidential bid –Survey

Vice-President (Prof.) Yemi Osinbajo

*The Intellectual Forum on Politics and Governance says the results of the recent survey were disaggregated into gender, state and geopolitical zones of Nigeria

Web Editor | ConsumerConnect

Vice-President (Prof.) Yemi Osinbajo is the preferred candidate of Nigerians to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari in 2023.

A recent nationwide  survey carried out by the Intellectual Forum on Politics and Governance (IFP&G) revealed this development in a statement.

The Deputy Chairman, Prof. Nasiru Yauri; Organising Secretary, Prof. Yahaya Baba, and member representing South-East, Prof. Ike Ogba, jointly signed the statement.

The survey, which was carried out by the group February 2022, indicated that Prof. Osinbajo is most likely to win a general election due to his popularity among a large number of Nigerians.

The IFP&G in the statement noted: “Analysis of the results clearly indicated that Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo was the citizens’ choice for the next President of the Federation.”

Prof. Yauri has specialisation in Economics, Management and International Finance; while Baba is specialised  in Comparative Political Institutions.

Whereas Prof. Ogba specialises in Marketing, Business Strategy, Consumer and Organisational Behaviour.

The statement further said that the group was established to support the critical analysis of various issues related to national development in Nigeria.

How the survey was conducted

The Intellectual Forum on Politics and Governance stated that the poll asked Nigerians to choose their favourite among Osinbajo; former Lagos State Governor and National Leader of APC, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu; a former Governor of Kano State, Rabiu Kwankwaso; and former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar.

The group noted though some other prominent Nigerian politicians have since declared their intention to contest the Presidency 2023, the group stated that Osinbajo, Tinubu, Kwankwaso and Atiku were selected on the basis of the politicians who were most likely to make a bid for the presidency at the time the survey was designed.

The IFP&G poll result was based on the balanced random sample of 12,000 names selected from a database of registered voters, with the respondents spread across the states of the Federation and all six geopolitical zones fully represented.

It stated that aside from leading the final poll as the citizens’ choice for the next President of the country, analysis of the results showed that Osinbajo polled almost twice the nearest challenger with 42.50 percent of the respondents selecting the Vice-President as their preferred choice, while 25.51 percent selected Atiku Abubakar as their preferred choice.

The group said: 18.07 percent selected Rabiu Kwankwaso while 13.92 percent of the respondents selected Bola Tinubu as their preferred candidate.

The IFP&G further stated: “It can be argued that if Bola Tinubu was not one of the selected candidates in this survey, the likelihood is that Prof. Yemi Osinbajo would have picked up most of the votes that is, the 13.92 percent, who voted for Bola Tinubu, taking him well over the 50 percent mark which is enough to win any election going by past records of elections in Nigeria.”

According to the group, the results of the survey were also disaggregated into gender, state and geopolitical zones.

Aside from the final results, Osinbajo also led in other criteria used by the group in its analysis, including being the leading candidate in four out of the six zones; and the preferred candidate for both males and females nationally, the statement said.

Based on the analysis of the results from the six geo political zones, Osinbajo led in the South-South, South-West, South-East and the North Central zones, while he was second to Rabiu Kwankwaso in the North-West, and also second to Abubakar Atiku in the North-East zone.

Similarly, the group noted that when the results were analysed on a gender basis, “Prof. Yemi Osinbajo was clearly the preferred candidate for both males and females nationally, with 41.29 percent of males selecting him as their choice and 46.38 percent of females selecting him.”

The IFP&G as well stated: ”This can be compared with 15.16 percent of the male gender selecting Bola Tinubu and 9.95 percent of the female gender selecting Bola Tinubu as their preferred candidate for president.

“The survey was carried out by telephone calls.

“ were simply asked who they would prefer to be their president in 2023 out of the following politicians, Bola Tinubu, Yemi Osinbajo, Rabiu Kwankwaso and Abubakar Atiku.”

It said: “The politicians were selected on the basis of the politicians who were most likely to make a bid for the Presidency at the time the survey was designed.”

The statement noted that a total of 5,525 citizens responded to the telephone calls, representing a response rate of 46 percent.

“This sample size guarantees at least a confidence interval of 95 percent with a 3 percent margin of error.

”Of the responders, 35 percent were female and 65 percent were male, therefore the results were slightly biased toward men,” it said.

The Intellectual Forum on Politics and Governance added: “It should also be considered that with phone penetration at approximately 80 percent of the population, the survey results apply specifically to the subset of the country who possess mobile phones.”

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